2026 PGA Championship pool picks: who to trust, who to sweat

The PGA Championship heads to Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, for the 108th playing of one of golf’s four majors. The event dates back to 1916 and still plays for the Wanamaker Trophy, which gives this week a little more weight than a normal tour stop.

Aronimink has its own history too. The club dates back to 1896, and Donald Ross designed the current course, which opened for play in 1928. It is a par 70 around 7,350 to 7,400 yards, with course notes pointing to precision, approach play, firm greens, and fewer easy bailout spots. For pool picks, that means missed-cut risk matters. A steady T18 can be more useful than a longshot who needs everything to go right just to see Saturday.

Scottie Scheffler is the obvious anchor. That is not creative, but pool picks do not need to be cute at the top. Multiple books had him as the clear favorite this week, and the public writeups all point to the same thing: elite tee-to-green form, three straight runner-up finishes, and a track record of showing up in majors.

Cameron Young is the second name I would not overthink. Covers, Golfweek, NBC/Rotoworld, and SBR all had strong notes on his recent form. The common thread: he has been hot, he is avoiding big numbers, and he has enough win equity that he can separate a pool entry without being a total moonshot.

Xander Schauffele is the boring pick that usually looks better by Friday night. Covers noted his run of top-20 major finishes, and that matters in a pool where missed cuts wreck entries. If your format counts four scores, Xander is the kind of player who keeps the floor intact.

Ludvig Åberg is a great pool pick if your group rewards upside. CBS had multiple experts on him outright, and Covers liked the ball-striking fit. The one concern is closing. That matters less if your pool just needs four strong counted scores and more if everyone piles into the same favorites.

Tommy Fleetwood is another solid middle lane. Golf Channel and Golfweek both pointed to his made-cut run and top-10 form. He may not be the guy you pick to win outright, but for a pool entry he can be very useful because he gives you a credible weekend score without forcing you into the very top of the odds board.

Russell Henley is the kind of pick that can win an office pool. He is not as flashy, but Covers liked the tee-to-green numbers, driving accuracy, bogey avoidance, and recent major form. On a course where precision matters, that profile makes sense.

Rickie Fowler is interesting because several sources landed in the same neighborhood. Covers, SI, and CBS all noted his recent top-10 run. He is not someone I would make my first risky pick in a small pool, but in a bigger pool where you need one differentiator, he is at least defensible.

Tyrrell Hatton also belongs in the conversation. Golf Channel and Covers both liked pieces of the profile, including recent major form and approach play. He is a better fit in formats where you can afford one volatile golfer after you have locked in safer names.

Shane Lowry and Alex Smalley are deeper darts. Lowry has the major-weather, grind-it-out profile. Smalley showed up in SI as a very long longshot with recent form. I would only go there if your pool is large enough that duplicated picks are a real problem.

Rory McIlroy is the hardest one. Some sources liked him, and he obviously has the talent to win. But Covers and CBS both raised enough short-game and driving-accuracy concerns that I would treat him as a preference pick, not an automatic. If half your pool is taking him, fading Rory is at least a reasonable way to be different.

Bryson DeChambeau is another uncomfortable one. The upside is obvious. The concern is whether Aronimink lets him turn the week into a bomb-and-gouge contest. Covers, NBC/Rotoworld, and CBS all had some version of that concern.

Matt Fitzpatrick is not a straight fade, but I would not blindly chase the early-season wins. NBC had positive notes on him, while Covers thought he may have already peaked. In a pool, that makes him more of a middle-risk pick than a lock.

If your pool uses a 12-pick entry and counts the best four scores, I would build it in layers. Start with two anchors, add three or four steady made-cut types, then use the rest on upside. Do not fill half the card with longshots just because one of them might pop.

A reasonable structure would look like this: Scheffler or Young as the first anchor, Xander or Åberg as the second, then Fleetwood, Henley, and one riskier play like Fowler or Hatton. After that, use your remaining picks to avoid duplicates in your group. The goal is not to pick the winner perfectly. The goal is to keep enough good scores alive when the weekend starts.

Do not overbuild around one favorite. Take two safe names, a few players who should make the cut, and one or two guys with enough upside to matter. The missed-cut penalty is what kills entries, so keep the floor in mind before chasing every longshot.